It’s been much discussed on The Bloodhorse, and no doubt numerous other venues all over the web.  Debates rage, and opinions differ, the one thing most seem to agree on is that it’s pretty much a 3 horse race for the title (how strange is it to see that phrase used in a near literal sense)?

While I’m certainly no expert on thoroughbred racing (I think my gambling results speak for themselves in that regard), and I definitely don’t get an actual vote, I do have some opinions on the matter, and since it’s Friday, and we haven’t posted anything in the Freestyle section since the Travers, I figure, if nothing else, a racing-related post will give me the chance to show off a few of the photos I took during this year’s Saratoga meet.

The Candidates

Horse of the Year is a North American award, so as strong as the European showing was in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I’m afraid, as impressive as their respective wins were, Raven’s Pass and Goldikova don’t merit serious consideration.  The same is also true for the amazing Zarkava.

With the Europeans out, we’re left with the consensus top 3 horses of 2008; Big Brown, Zenyatta, and reigning Horse of the Year, Curlin.

The Case for Zenyatta

How can you argue with 7-7 including 4 Grade I and 2 Grade II victories; all topped off with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic?  On record alone, no other horse can touch the year that Zenyatta had.  Perhaps more impressive than the wins themselves are how she accomplished them.  We’re talking about a filly who breaks slow, barely seems interested for the better part of a mile, and then habitually blows by the field as if the rest of the horses are moving backwards.

The Case Against Zenyatta

For all that she accomplished, Zenyatta still has a few holes in her resume.  6 of her 7 starts were over synthetic, most took place on the West Coast, and of course, not once did she race against the boys.  While there aren’t any hard and fast rules that say a filly has to beat the boys to win horse of the year (no doubt she would have beaten more than her fair share), nonetheless, when coupled with the fact that her competition wasn’t always the toughest (admittedly not her fault), it certainly leaves the door open for one of our other two contenders.

The Case for Curlin

We’re talking about the reigning horse of the year.  5 wins in 7 starts; including 4 Grade I Victories.  One of those, the prestigious Dubai World Cup, he won by an astounding 7 3/4 lengths, despite giving 15 pounds to his nearest opponent (this after dropping 14 in his previous win).  While subsequent wins in the Foster, Woodward, and Jockey Club Gold weren’t as visually impressive, they did propel him past Cigar into the number #1 spot in lifetime earnings.  Although he didn’t win every race like Zenyatta, he took on all comers on all surfaces and performed well on each and every occasion.

The Case Against Curlin

When people argue against Curlin they make 1 or more of the following 3 arguments.  1 - The rest of his season wasn’t nearly as impressive as his win in Dubai.  Maybe Dubai took too much out of him, maybe he was tired, maybe he got a bad ride in the Classic.  As I said, I’m no expert.  2 - He finished 2nd in his only Turf start. 3 - His disappointing 4th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup helps to make the case for one of the other two.

The Case for Big Brown

Brownie is an absolute freak of a horse.  He put up a 90 Beyer in his maiden race over the turf at Saratoga - and as it turns out, he was just getting started.  Two more ridiculously easy wins, including the Grade I Florida Derby, punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.  We all know what happened next.  And then it happened again in the Preakness.  Until he suffered a quarter crack in the days prior to the Belmont, he didn’t just look untouchable, he was untouchable.  Throw in a win in the Grade I Haskell over the turf at Belmont, and it’s hard to argue that Big Brown had anything but a great year.

The Case Against Big Brown

Yeah, I know Ken Desormeaux pulled him up in the Belmont, but DFL (dead f^*king last) is DFL and it’s hard for me to imagine that a horse that runs last against the best 3-year-olds in the country (such as they are) could be horse of the year.  Of course, you could also argue that the 3 year old crop was weak this year, and while I think that’s probably valid, you can only run again the competition that exists.

Here’s my Big Brown problem.  Toss out the Haskell, it was written for him, and him alone; it barely counts as a race.  I’ve already mentioned the Belmont, and while I’m sure many, many will disagree with me, that will always be the race I remember Big Brown for.  The chance to take the Triple Crown, and the heavy favorite finishes dead last.  That may be the story of the year.

What about the Derby you ask?  Again, perhaps it speaks to my inexperience with “the game”, perhaps it’s my sentimental side; as impressive as Big Brown was in The Derby, for me, that race will always be about Eight Belles.  She’s the horse I’ll remember.  It’s hard to find a photo of Big Brown nearing the finish without her.

The other issue I have with Big Brown is the multitude of hoof injuries.  Yes, he ran well, when he ran, but I can’t see awarding Horse of the Year to a horse that, to my eyes anyway, is fundamentally unsound.  Are we seriously going to breed him?

Who Gets My Vote

Maybe it’s that sentimentality again, but my (virtual) vote goes to Curlin.  While I don’t think you necessarily get points for showing up, 4th place over an unfamiliar surface, against the best horses in the world is nothing to scoff at.  While I won’t swear that he would have finished better, I think Robby Albarado misjudged the pace early, and moved too soon.

I’m also willing to excuse his 2nd place finish in his first Turf start in the Grade I, Man O War.  He beat Better Talk Now, while losing to Red Rocks.  We’re talking about two of the best turf horses in America, and Curlin ran with them his first time out of the gate.

Maybe he wasn’t the same horse in the Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold, but he one them both; the latter on a hand ride.

Look, if Big Brown had run more often, wasn’t often injured, and didn’t run last in the Belmont, he’d get my vote.  If Zenyatta had spent a bit more time in my neck of the woods (East Coast), or beaten a colt or two, she’d get my vote.  Both horses had great years, but Curlin ran on the West Coast, the East Coast, and the Middle East.  He ran on dirt, he ran on grass, and he ran on synthetics.  While he wasn’t perfect like Zenyatta, he never finished worse than 4th.  Incidentally, had Jess Jackson played it safe and skipped the Classic, there probably wouldn’t even be a debate.

Champion 3 Year Old Filly

As long as I’m ranting…Proud Spell gets my vote over Music Note.  They split their head to head meetings, Proud Spell had more wins against better competition (although she did skip the Ladies Classic).  Proud Spell also gets the sentimental vote because of the Larry Jones/Eight Belles connection.

Who knows. Maybe this time next year I'll be talking about Munnings (2nd from Left), and Vineyard Haven (2nd from Right).